When Trump and Netanyahu decided to conduct an Iran “excursion” (war), we got a bad feeling for many reasons. Our first thought was that the Strait of Hormuz would likely close. Our second thought was the increased danger to the critically endangered African penguins if shipping routes changed. This was one time we didn’t want to be right.
We’ve been here before. And that’s exactly what worries us.
In Algoa Bay, off the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa, a quiet catastrophe unfolded over eight years. In 2015, St Croix Island was home to 7,000 breeding pairs of African penguins; the largest colony of its kind on Earth. By 2023, only 700 remained. A 90% population collapse in less than a decade.
The cause wasn’t a mystery. When licenses were issued allowing bulk carriers to refuel at sea in Algoa Bay, a practice known as ship-to-ship bunkering, here’s what happened.
- Vessel traffic in the bay increased tenfold.
- Underwater noise doubled.
- African penguins, which rely on sound to communicate, coordinate hunts, and find food, were effectively silenced. They couldn’t hear each other. They couldn’t work together to locate fish. They starved.
Then, in 2023, bunkering in Algoa Bay stopped because of a tax dispute between operators and the government. And something remarkable happened. Within a single year, breeding pairs jumped 71%. African penguins can produce up to four chicks a year in good conditions. Give them a chance, and they bounce back.
That recovery is now at risk. And this time, the threat is arriving from halfway around the world.
Will the Cape route become the new normal?
In late February 2026, the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. Tehran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Almost immediately, the global shipping industry pivoted south.
Companies like Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd diverted vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where the Houthi militia, Iran-backed and newly re-engaged, had already spent years attacking ships and crew. The Cape of Good Hope became, once again, the world’s freight corridor of last resort.
Maritime economist Brian Ingpen, based in Cape Town, estimates that traffic through Southern Africa could almost double. “It’s really the Houthi rebel situation that has, again, forced a lot of shipowners to redirect to the Cape,” he told the New York Times, “and if traffic builds up like it did a year ago, as many as 150 ships a day, including regular traffic, should now be passing around the Cape.”
This is not a temporary blip. Dangerous confrontations that force shipping companies to sail the Cape route are increasing.
Why Algoa Bay is in the crosshairs
The Cape route makes Algoa Bay, already the site of one of the worst penguin collapses on record, a strategically attractive refueling stop.
Rerouting vessels around the Cape has already raised shipping costs by 30% to 70%, according to some estimates. Every extra day at sea burns fuel and money. Bunkering in Algoa Bay, as the New York Times noted, “is ideal for rerouted shipping as it avoids port fees on the extended journey.” Brian Ingpen put it plainly: offshore services, bunkering, crew changes, spares delivery, medical evacuations, are “the biggest beneficiaries of increased shipping.”
In other words: the economics of the Iran war point directly at the waters African penguins frequent.
What bunkering does to penguins
As we’ve written about before, ship-to-ship bunkering in Algoa Bay is a documented driver of species collapse. The refueling of ships at sea has been directly tied to surging underwater noise pollution and devastating oil spills.
African penguins are acoustic hunters. They call to each other to coordinate dives, locate sardine and anchovy shoals, and navigate back to their nesting sites. When ambient underwater noise doubles, as it did during the bunkering boom in Algoa Bay, their entire social and survival system breaks down. The penguins don’t disappear dramatically. They just quietly fail to eat, fail to breed, fail to survive.
A 90% collapse, quietly, over eight years. We watched it happen. We cannot watch it happen again.
South Africa Is proposing better rules, but will they arrive in time?
In 2025, we wrote about South Africa’s Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment proposed new draft regulations requiring an independently developed Environmental Management Plan for all offshore bunkering operations. Then Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Dion George stated clearly: “The African penguin is an iconic species — its survival is non-negotiable.”
Those regulations matter enormously. But regulations take time to finalize and enforce. The surge in Cape route traffic is happening right now. And politics are creating problems. the Democratic Alliance (DA) replaced Minister George with Willie Aucamp, who is known to favor oil and gas.
The 71% rebound in breeding pairs we saw after bunkering paused is proof of what’s possible. African penguins are resilient. They are not doomed, but only if we protect the conditions they need to recover. A species that can bounce back 71% in a single year is a species worth fighting for with urgency.
What needs to happen
The global shipping industry’s pivot to the Cape route presents South Africa with both an economic opportunity and an environmental test. The two don’t have to be in conflict. Strong, enforceable protections need to be in place when the traffic surge peaks, not scrambled into existence after the damage is done. And yes, we get the the US and Israel caused this latest threat to the African penguins. Yet, South Africa can take steps to insulate their marine ecosystems from external threats.
We are calling for:
- Immediate finalization and enforcement of the proposed bunkering regulations in Algoa Bay and other sensitive marine areas
- Mandatory environmental impact assessments before issuing any new bunkering licenses near African penguin colonies
- Binding noise‑monitoring requirements and real‑time limits on vessel congregation within critical foraging zones
- Formal recognition of Algoa Bay as a sensitive marine area under International Maritime Organization (IMO) guidelines to activate international shipping protections
The penguins of St Croix Island nearly vanished because a regulatory gap was exploited for economic gain. The gap has not yet been fully closed. And the ships are already coming.
The question is whether we will act in time.
New York Times article referenced: South Africa Sees Maritime Traffic Surge Amid Iran War.